The Past is the Key to the Present… and the Future

A Corollary of the Principle of Uniformitarianism

By Howard Dewhirst, Geologist

This document aims to contextualise the scientific debate concerning Climate Change (CC) and Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Examining Earth history, it is indisputable that CC has been operating for many hundreds of millions of years, in cycles that span many different time-scales (millennial-plus to decadal), all without human influence. Understanding the causative factors in past CC provides a solid basis for framing the present debate. AGW is a notion which says that human activities, notably the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere, are causing an increase in the global heat budget. That higher-energy state of Earth’s environment it is argued sets the stage for damaging CC effects. Political and economic decisions have been influenced by this claim. Some of those decisions harm efforts to better the health and welfare of the world’s population, including both the poorest and those who are better off. If the CC and AGW arguments are incorrectly based, as we outline here, there is a need to re-consider those decisions.

CC in Earth History

  • Paleo-temperature (of atmosphere and ocean) is taken as a proxy indicator of climate, since climate is a complex concept that includes precipitation amounts and patterns, wind, etc whose history and future cannot be extracted or classified in a satisfactory way
  • Earth’s equatorial region has had a consistent temperature during the climate swings over hundreds of millions of years, but the polar areas have varied, thus altering the pole-to-equator gradient of heat energy, which is the principal driver of climate on the planet
  • Causes of CC (changes in temperature gradients) are dominated by orbital and solar effects, with added signals from volcanoes (both dust and chemicals), tectonics and plate motions, and biological feedbacks
  • Oceans (which cover ~70% of the planet) are the main heat reservoir, but with patterns of warmer and colder water distributions that reveal decadal and longer cyclicity that is not understood

Global Warming

    • Earth’s temperature has been generally rising since the end of the last ice age, with an apparent acceleration during the last century, but not since
    • Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have also been rising more uniformly, now reaching 410ppm or 0.04% of atmosphere
    • CO2 has been identified as a ‘greenhouse gas’, based on an argument that it traps and reflects heat
    • The physics of CO2 heat retention are over-stated, as only a tiny portion of the electromagnetic spectrum (wavelengths of heat energies) can be captured by this molecule
    • Because CO2 concentration is rising and is implicated in global warming, and because CO2 is a by-product of combustion, energy sources from fossil fuels have been demonised – via social and political suppression of their use, and a push towards 100% renewable energy
    • There are three key challenges to the idea that CO2 is the primary cause of GW:
      • Long-term records of CO2 and temperature show good correlation, but the CO2 concentrations lag behind temperature increases by thousands of years. Thus, CO2 increase is the consequence of rising ocean temperature, not the cause
      • Numerical models of climate systems, which involve simplifying assumptions and methods that are associated with serious artefacts, consistently fail to ‘predict’ the known past temperature patterns. Such models cannot justify the suppression of hydrocarbon fuels.
      • Average temperatures are no longer increasing despite the inexorable rise of CO2

Human activities are not the driver of global warming (or cooling). Earth’s systems are governed by processes that operate over a wide range of time- and length-scales, many of which far exceed the usual scope of human perceptions. The demonization of carbon is scientifically unjustified.

Howard Dewhirst

Read the open letter: http://clexit.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/gsl-open-letter-dewhirst.pdf [PDF, 312 KB]

Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council Press Release

PRESS RELEASE

The Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council in its Comment Calls on President Trump and EPA to Repeal and Not Replace the Clean Power Plan(CPP).
CHECC CPP ANPRM Replacement Comment Overview FINAL 022718 PDF

Key Comment Conclusions*:

  • CO2 is a Beneficial Gas, not a Pollutant. As a result, the Social Cost of Carbon is Negative since CO2 is so very critical to plant growth and therefore human life.

  • The 2009 Endangerment Finding must be reconsidered and rescinded/vacated. Thus, the CPP would not be replaced.

  • All future Federal, State and private sector decisions regarding the Nation’s electric power grid must focus solely on minimizing consumer electricity prices as well as maximizing Grid Reliability and Resilience. No consumer electricity price increases should be permitted by regulators that result from increased Renewables/Energy Storage Grid penetration.

  • The Current Reconsideration of future vehicle MPG Standards must treat CO2 reduction as a cost, not a benefit, so that only consumer preferences matter, not climate change issues. Currently, with low gasoline price expectations, most consumers prefer trucks & SUVs.

*Based on the Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council (CHECC) Comment in response to EPA’s ANPRM CPP Replacement

CHECC CPP ANPRM Replacement Comment FINAL to EPA 022618 (1)

Filed February 26, 2018

Continue reading “Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council Press Release”

The Natural History Museum vs. American Museum of Natural History

The Natural History Museum is accusing the American Museum of Natural History “of being ‘anti-science’ and promoting ‘climate science misinformation’, and in particular, vilifying a scientifically-engaged trustee of the museum, Rebekah Mercer.”

For background on this dispute, see: Background Detail [PDF, 190 KB]

For the petition letter with signatories supporting American Museum of Natural History see: Petition [PDF, 445 KB]

Real Debate Rocks the Geological Society of London

The Geological Society of London helped to drive UK climate policy. However many members of the GSL have questioned their position papers, and a group of disgruntled geo’s resigned after the position papers were published.

There is now a movement to have the GSL position papers amended, and comments and submissions are invited. Read all about it below:

Here is the questionable policy statement:

http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/

And here are some comments to date:

http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/#comment-36505
http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/#comment-36507
http://euanmearns.com/the-geological-society-of-londons-statement-on-climate-change/#comment-36511

Please join this important debate.

Part Time Power

Solar power only works while the sun shines – it is part-time power.

Wind power only works when suitable winds blows – also part-time power.

Batteries only work when charged – part-time power again.

Hydro fails in droughts – more part-time power.

And using full-time power like gas to fill the inevitable supply gaps from part-time power forces backup gas to operate like part-time power.

Moreover, on sunny windy days, wind and solar generators spew out electricity at little extra cost. These erratic surges of part-time power drive short-term electricity prices so low that even low-cost full-time producers like coal cannot operate profitably at those times. They are throttled back and forced to operate as yet another part-time power plant.

24/7 electricity users such as hospitals, trains, factories, refineries, fuel and water pumps, cash registers, infrastructure and mines cannot operate on part-time electricity.

Moreover, every part-time power producer (using sun, wind, batteries, hydro, gas or coal) consumes money full-time for operations, standby, maintenance and replacement. Each also has to fund its own specialised generators, transmission lines, access roads and workforce. Electricity becomes both unreliable and expensive, and consumers suffer.

Using taxes, subsidies, dictates and mandates to replace a full-time power producer like coal with up to five part-time power producers only makes sense in the part-time minds that inhabit Greentopia.

Canberra cannot improve any of this with more laws and regulations – they must REPEAL all the legislation, regulations, subsidies and taxes that created the mess in the first place. State governments too should repeal their silly energy laws, and stop shutting and destroying power stations. More laws and regulations can only make things worse.

To comment on this article visit:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/18/green-power-is-part-time-power/

Viv Forbes
26 Nov 2017

Party Time for Climateers

The climate warriors have held yet another Global Warming Jamboree in Bonn. As expected we were treated to an orchestrated flood of frightening forecasts to support their alarmist agenda.

Naturally most of them did not use carbon energy to get there.

bonn-s

Image credits to www.carbon-sense.com

For 23 years they have maintained these shindigs with no effect on the climate but causing great harm to many ordinary people – soaring costs for unreliable subsidised green electricity, loss of manufacturing and mining jobs, and increased food costs caused by high power prices and using food for ethanol/biodiesel.

Climate alarm is just a cover story. The glittering goal they seek is world government directed by unelected officials and funded by a global carbon tax.

What has kept these unproductive conferences alive for so long?

The money is great, the parties are fun, and the prize is power.

To comment on this article visit:
https://www.iceagenow.info/party-time-climateers/

Further Reading:
An acute case of Apocalypse Fatigue Syndrome by Keith DeLacy:
https://carbon-sense.com/2017/11/17/apocalypse-fatigue-syndrome/

An Avalanche of Global Warming Alarmism:

http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/03/an-avalanche-of-global-warming-alarmism-is-about-to-hit/

Here is the First Alarming Salvo:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/climate/us-climate-report.html

Climate Policy Is: Redistributing The World’s Wealth:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/18/ipcc-official-%E2%80%9Cclimate-policy-is-redistributing-the-worlds-wealth%E2%80%9D/

What we need to do – Drain the Canberra Swamps like they are doing in Washington:
http://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/360763-epas-scott-pruitt-drains-the-swamp-like-no-one-else-in-washington

Viv Forbes
6 Nov 2017

“Zero Emissions” will Test the Convictions of Canberrans

Canberra, with its “zero emissions” target, yearns to be Australia’s greenest address.

Good. Let’s use them as a full-blown test of “zero emissions” before we all jump over that cliff.

Canberra passes thousands of laws for us. If their zero emissions dream is fair dinkum, they need to pass just three laws for themselves.

First, ban all petrol, diesel and gas-powered trucks, cars, boats, generators and aeroplanes from Canberra. That should remove emissions from their atmosphere, food from their supermarkets, and leave their roads free for pedestrians and bicycles. Idle airport runways would be ideal sites for solar panels and wind turbines.

Second, prohibit the importation of electricity generated by coal or gas – they can demonstrate how to survive on wind, solar, hydro, batteries and fire-wood. They should work at home using bees-wax candles on cloudy windless days.

Third, introduce a CCT (Canberra-carbon-tax) whereby all carbon dioxide emitted elsewhere in the production and transport of imported cement, steel, aluminium, bitumen, timber, vehicles, bicycles, solar panels, wind turbines, fire wood and food is charged to ACT end users.

If people flock into emissions-free Canberra we know that this is the way for Australia. But if there is a mass exodus, it will signal that the policy is a failure.

Let’s test the convictions of Canberrans.

If you would like to comment, or read comments, on this article go here:

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/11/zero_emissions_will_test_the_convictions_of_canberrans_.html

Further Reading:
Canberra’s Zero Emissions Target:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/canberras-zero-emissions-target-brought-forward-10-years-20160503-gokqnd.html

http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/act-commits-to-100-per-cent-renewable-energy-target-by-2020-simon-corbell-20160428-goh1l9.html

The Ideal Car for Canberra:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUKolh8Q9hA

Queensland will have to close perfectly good power stations to meet a 50% target:
https://aip.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Report_50_percent_renewables_Queensland_11_11_20.pdf

https://aip.asn.au/2017/11/implications-of-a-50-renewable-energy-policy-on-queenslands-energy-sector/
Viv Forbes
1 Nov 2017

Back to Bolted-Down Industries

Once upon a time Australia was attractive to processing, refining and manufacturing industries using our abundant mineral and food resources, our reliable low-cost coal-fired electricity and a workforce trained in technical skills.

No longer.

Australia used to have 11 oil refineries, spread around the country. There are just 4 left, all over fifty years old, and all in danger of closing down. Green barriers to oil exploration have forced most of them to rely on costly imported crude oil.

We buy our jet fuel from North Asia and have just 19 days supply of aviation fuel in the country. Australia’s diesel supplies sometimes fall to just 13 days of consumption.

Now, for the first time in at least 60 years Australia no longer produces motor vehicles.

China and India have about 430 coal power plants under construction but Australia has not built a single coal-fired power station for seven years – some politicians even rejoice when they manage to close and demolish one.

Brisbane’s new trains are being made in India, Victa mowers are made in China and most coastal shipping died decades ago. Steel works and refineries producing aluminium, copper and zinc are under stress. All these industries are being pushed overseas by costly unreliable electricity and other government barriers and burdens.

Red-green policies being pushed by all major parties are making Australia more dependent on bolted-down industries such as mining and farming that can’t be sent overseas because their basic resources are here. And green opposition to nuclear power increases Aussie reliance on coal.

A century ago Australians relied on wool, wheat, gold, silver, copper, lead-zinc, butter, beef and timber – all products of bolted-down industries.

Red-green policies are pushing us back to those days. Politicians need to remember Newton’s Law of Bureaucracy – whenever the government tries to use the force of law to achieve economic goals the long term results will be equal and opposite to those intended.

So in the long run, red-green energy and environmental policies will make us more dependent on the bolted-down industries they now attack – mining, farming, forestry and fishing.

If you would like to comment on this article, or see other comments go to:

http://www.pickeringpost.com/glance/back-to-bolted-down-industries/7781

Further Reading:

Construction of new coal-fired power plants is increasing in at least 35 countries:
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2017/09/13/world-building-new-coal-plants-faster-than-it-shuts-them/


Asia is returning to Coal:
https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/why-is-asia-returning-to-coal/


Greens Disappointed by Economic Growth:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/11/14/co2-emissions-surge-greens-disappointed-by-economic-growth/


Australia’s Aging oil refineries are closing:

http://theconversation.com/security-in-doubt-as-australias-aging-oil-refineries-shut-down-5553


Viv Forbes

16 Nov 2017

CARBON EMISSIONS

Questions for Jacinda [Ardern, leader of New Zealand’s Labour Party], the Greens and any other political zealots talking about reduction of “carbon” emissions, by which I guess they mean the trace gas carbon dioxide (CO2) that currently, at 400 ppm represents 0.04% of Earth’s atmosphere from all sources, natural and human-induced.

How do they propose to deal with (a) human emissions of CO2 when each of us exhale, estimated at around an average of 1 kg per day; (b), emissions from volcanoes both above and below the oceans: (c), emissions from sedimentary basins; the combination of which of which greatly exceed CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels in our cars and elsewhere, and from flatulent animals?

And what allowance will they make for the extent to which CO2 as nature’s fertiliser has greened the Earth by an observed 14% since 1979 when satellites gave us the ability to see and measure such changes. For New Zealand alone, an increase of 300 ppm of CO2 in our atmosphere is estimated to increase our pasture production by some 30 per cent, and raise our pastoral sector earnings from their current $28 billion by $8 billion, without taking into account similar productivity gains in horticulture and viticulture.

While they’re at at, will one of them quote just one scientific paper, prepared in the recognised scientific method that proves that emissions of CO2 can or do cause variations in the global climate beyond the range of historically recorded observations. No one, anywhere in the world has yet done so.

Reference:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/opinion/92324200/Doug-Edmeades-Carbon-dioxide-friend-or-foe

Terry Dunleavy MBE
Hauraki, North Shore
New Zealand

Worthless Argument: 97 Percent of Climate Scientists Believe Fossil Fuels Cause Global Warming

By Jim Rust.

Many climate alarmists claim 97 percent or more climate scientists state carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is causing global warming. I tell them it is not worth discussing this issue. Anyone can create useless statistics to support their arguments. Simply interview people who agree with you.

If you go back to the 1600s, I could say 100 percent of scientists said the earth was the center of the universe and the sun revolved around the earth. Galileo Galilei dissented from this theory and was tried for heresy by the Catholic Church. In order to save his life, on June 22, 1633, Galileo Galilei recanted his published theory that stated the sun was the center of the world and the earth was not. Galileo lived in house arrest the rest of his life.

This shows the argument of force using claims of majority thinking are worthless and should not be used in debates about global warming (climate change). Similarly, “No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.” – Albert Einstein quotes from BrainyQuote.com.

James H. Rust, professor of nuclear engineering (ret. Georgia Tech) and policy advisor The Heartland Institute